Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 May 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES HAVE PRODUCED SMALL C-LEVEL X-RAY FLARES FROM REGIONS 8535 (N21E08) AND 8541 (N22E25).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST AND THIRD DAY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO CORONAL HOLE INFLUENCES. DAY 2 IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE OF MINOR STORMING DUE TO A CME OBSERVED EARLY ON 10 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 MAY 159
  Predicted   12 MAY-14 MAY  157/157/157
  90 Day Mean        11 MAY 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAY  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAY  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAY-14 MAY  015/015-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAY to 14 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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