Viewing archive of Monday, 17 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
EVENTS WERE AN UNCORRELATED M2.3 X-RAY FLARE AT 17/0449Z AND AN M1
X-RAY FLARE AT 16/2225Z CORRELATED TO OPTICAL ACTIVITY IN REGION
8541 (N22W37). REGION 8548 (S21E48) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 MAY 145 Predicted 18 MAY-20 MAY 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 17 MAY 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY 005/010-005/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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