Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. INTERMITTENT SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8574 (N29E28) PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE
FLARES, AND EXHIBITED THE BRIGHTEST PLAGE OF THE FOURTEEN SPOT
GROUPS NOW VISIBLE. REGION 8562 (S15W57) IS THE MOST COMPLEX
MAGNETICALLY, BUT HAS GENERATED LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS,
8575 (N13E32) AND 8576 (S29E52), WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION
8574 OR REGION 8562.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT STAYED BELOW 10 PFU ALL PERIOD, SO THE EVENT
THAT BEGAN 04/0925Z, AND REACHED A MAX OF 64 PFU AT 04/1055Z, DID
INDEED END AT 05/1515Z. ACE DETECTED A SMALL DISCONTINUITY IN THE
SOLAR WIND AT L1 TODAY AT 0359Z, PERHAPS RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE CME THAT LEFT THE SUN AROUND 0700Z ON 04 JUNE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JUN to 09 JUN
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 JUN 168 Predicted 07 JUN-09 JUN 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 06 JUN 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JUN to 09 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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