SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8598 (N23W80) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT NEARED THE WEST LIMB, BUT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE AN IMPULSIVE M1/1F FLARE AT 01/2143Z ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8603 (S14W37) DISPLAYED LITTLE CHANGE AND REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. IT PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 01/2331Z AND A FEW SUBFLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8611 (S25W06) RETAINED MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND WAS THE LARGEST (APPROX. AREA 400 MILLIONTHS) AND MOST ACTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. IT PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES: AN M2/1B AT 02/0138Z AND AN M1/SF 02/1520Z, BOTH OF WHICH WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR RADIO EMISSION. NEW REGIONS 8616 (N30W73) AND 8617 (N14W28) WERE NUMBERED.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE ACE SPACECRAFT DETECTED AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK PASSAGE AT L1 AT 02/0024Z FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT EARTH AT 02/0101Z (48 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF INCREASE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE 02/1500-1800Z INTERVAL. THE SOURCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY A HALO-CME OBSERVED ON 30 JUNE.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY, THEN DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

  Observed       02 JUL 187
  Predicted   03 JUL-05 JUL  180/175/165
  90 Day Mean        02 JUL 148

OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUL  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  022/024
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  012/015-008/012-008/012