Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL REGIONS PRODUCED
C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST FROM REGION 8611
(S25W35) WHICH WAS A C6/1N AT 04/0828Z. A 10 DEGREE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 04/1453-1513Z AT N20W38 AND ANOTHER BETWEEN
04/1547-1614Z AT S14E46 WHICH WAS 11 DEGREES IN EXTENT. A NEW REGION
WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8621 (N21E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JUL to 07 JUL
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 JUL 186 Predicted 05 JUL-07 JUL 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 04 JUL 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL 010/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL 005/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL 005/012-005/016-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JUL to 07 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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