Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
THIS PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST FROM REGION 8645 (S25W29) WHICH
PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 01/0645Z. THIS REGION IS AS AN F-TYPE GROUP AND
CONTINUES TO GROW IN SUNSPOT AREA WITH AN AVERAGE OF 43 SPOTS
REPORTED FOR THE DAY. REGION 8651 (N24E09) REMAINS AN E-TYPE GROUP
AND THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AVERAGE OF 58
SPOTS. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS 8655 (N25E38) AND 8656
(N18E34).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT REGIONS ON THE SUN.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGH 01/0600Z THEN CHANGING TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 AUG to 04 AUG
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 AUG 216 Predicted 02 AUG-04 AUG 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 01 AUG 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL 021/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 AUG to 04 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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