Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 02-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8647 (S18W63) PRODUCED
AN X1/1B EVENT AT 02/2125Z THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II
SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 646 KM/S, AND A 570 SFU BURST
AT 10CM. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AN INCREASED SPOT COUNT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/1955Z. REGION 8651
(N26W18) IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH A WHITE
LIGHT AREA OF AROUND 1080 MILLIONTHS. THIS REGION AND REGION 8645
(S25W55) CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS 8658 (S25W13) AND 8659 (S23E22).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGIONS 8645, 8647, AND 8651.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO.
III. Event Probabilities 04 AUG to 06 AUG
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 AUG 211 Predicted 04 AUG-06 AUG 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 03 AUG 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 AUG 007/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG 010/012-015/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 AUG to 06 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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