Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8645 (S28W78) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1623Z ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8647 (S19W87) PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES AND DISPLAYED NEAR CONTINUOUS SURGING AS IT BEGAN CROSSING THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8651 (N26W44) WAS STABLE AS IT CONTINUED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8661 (S14E01) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGIONS 8645 AND 8647 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES AS THEY DEPART THE VISIBLE DISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 AUG to 08 AUG
Class M70%50%40%
Class X20%15%10%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 AUG 177
  Predicted   06 AUG-08 AUG  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        05 AUG 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 AUG to 08 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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