Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C9/1N FROM REGION 8681 (N22W03) AT 29/1731Z. THIS REGION CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND EXHIBITED AN ABNORMAL MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF A NEGATIVE ISLAND SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE POLARITY. REGION 8674 (S23W40) STABILIZED. THE LARGEST EVENT IT PRODUCED WAS A C4/SF AT 29/1229Z. THIS REGION MAINTAINED THE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IT HAS EXHIBITED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT IT SHOWED NO REGION DYNAMICS SUCH AS GROWTH AND SPOT PROPER MOTION. THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE. REGION 8674 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING M-CLASS AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF EVENTS SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS REGION BEGINS A SLOW PERIOD OF DECAY. REGION 8681 SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND NOW POSSESSES THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD TO JUST OVER 500 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NONE OF MANY RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH HEAD-ON BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLANKS OF SOME OF THE CMES COULD REACH THE EARTH. THEREFORE, ISOLATED ACTIVE, TO POSSIBLY MINOR STORM, PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR 1-2 MORE DAYS. THE POSSIBLY EXISTS FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8674 IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE.
III. Event Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
Class M75%75%75%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 AUG 218
  Predicted   30 AUG-01 SEP  220/217/197
  90 Day Mean        29 AUG 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  010/012-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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