Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 SEP 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR, MOSTLY OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SMALL GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 8690 (N15W34) AND 8699 (N21W11). NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN ANY OF THE REMAINING FOUR SUNSPOT REGIONS. AN IMPRESSIVE PROMINENCE ERUPTION/CME ON THE NW LIMB WAS OBSERVED FROM SPACE-BASED IMAGERY AT AROUND 14/0500UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8690, 8692 (S27W14), 8699 (N21W11), AND 8700 (N14E59), ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORMING. THIS ONGOING DISTURBANCE, ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS,
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYLIGHT HOURS AND UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME. EFFECTS FROM THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW; HOWEVER, WE MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ON DAY TWO FROM CME'S OBSERVED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 SEP 156
  Predicted   15 SEP-17 SEP  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        14 SEP 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 SEP  023/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 SEP  022/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 SEP-17 SEP  018/015-018/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 SEP to 17 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%50%40%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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