Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 September 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 SEP 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE MINOR C-CLASS EVENT
OCCURRED AT 29/1605Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. NEW REGIONS 8712
(S13W06), 8713 (S13E62), AND 8714 (N11E72) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE
TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED DURING ONE PERIOD FROM 29/0600 - 0900Z. THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 SEP 125 Predicted 30 SEP-02 OCT 125/120/122 90 Day Mean 29 SEP 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP 020/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP 020/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT 012/015-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 SEP to 02 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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