Viewing archive of Monday, 8 November 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 NOV 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF FROM REGION 8759
(N13E59) AT 08/1852Z. THIS REGION HAS WHITE LIGHT AREA OF OVER 800
MILLIONTHS AND MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK DELTA
CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER OF THIS REGION. DEPARTING REGION 8749
(S18W88) PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 08/0602Z. REGION 8760 EMERGED STEADILY
DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A C4/SN AT 08/1117Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE
DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGE AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OF REGION
8759 INDICATE THAT M-CLASS EVENTS ARE PROBABLE FROM THIS AREA. THE
FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS FLARES SHOULD BE EVERY 1-2 DAYS SINCE THE
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING. REGION 8760 SHOULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT MATURES. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8759 DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 08/0600-1500Z. A FEW HIGH
LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THAT
PERIOD. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE IS CORONAL HOLE
RELATED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN DISTURBED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MID LATITUDES CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AND HIGH LATITUDES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THE CORONAL
HOLE CAUSING THIS DISTURBANCE IS QUITE WIDE AND THE HIGH SPEED
STREAM FROM IT SHOULD IMPACT THE EARTH FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 NOV 192 Predicted 09 NOV-11 NOV 190/192/194 90 Day Mean 08 NOV 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV 020/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV 022/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV 020/037-020/035-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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