Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED, WITH REGION 8788 (N10E56) BEING THE MOST PRODUCTIVE DISK
REGION. SURGING HAS BEEN SEEN MOST OF THE DAY NEAR N10W90, WHERE
REGION 8782 IS MAKING ITS TRANSIT. THE STATE OF THE DISK CAN BE
DESCRIBED AS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS.
HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND, MEASURING NEAR 700 KM/S, CONTINUES TO BUFFET
THE MAGNETOPAUSE AND FUEL THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE
END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 DEC 148 Predicted 05 DEC-07 DEC 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 04 DEC 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 DEC 009/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 DEC 022/034 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 DEC-07 DEC 020/030-020/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 DEC to 07 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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