Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 December 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 DEC 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY INFREQUENT SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY
STABLE WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8793
(S16E11) AND 8794 (S15E58).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SINGLE ACTIVE
PERIOD OCCURRING AT 09/03-06UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 DEC to 12 DEC
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 DEC 156 Predicted 10 DEC-12 DEC 165/175/185 90 Day Mean 09 DEC 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC 009/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC 012/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 DEC to 12 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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