Viewing archive of Monday, 10 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8824 (S13E62)
PRODUCED AN M3/2N EVENT AT 1350Z, NOT LONG AFTER IT HAD GENERATED A
C9/SF AT 0912Z. THE GROUP IS A MODEST-SIZED BIPOLE, WITH A SEEMINGLY
SIMPLE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8825 (N11E58)
ROTATED INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN NEAR MIDDAY ON
09 JANUARY. THE FLUX ATTAINED A VALUE NEAR 2 PFU EARLY TODAY, AND IS
NOW SUBSIDING. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS AGAIN TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY
TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 11 JAN to 13 JAN
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 JAN 163 Predicted 11 JAN-13 JAN 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 10 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JAN 001/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JAN 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JAN-13 JAN 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 JAN to 13 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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