Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. OVERALL ACTIVITY INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13E47) DEVELOPED
INTO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AND PRODUCED AN
M1/1F EVENT AT 12/0017UT. REGION 8824 ALSO PRODUCED MULTIPLE C-CLASS
EVENTS AND SHOWED STRONG PLAGE BRIGHTENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
NEW NUMBERED REGION 8829 (N16E78) PRODUCED AN M2/SF IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AT 12/0138UT. REGIONS 8826 (N18W21), 8827
(S11W20), AND 8828 (S19E58) ALL SHOWED INCREASED ACTIVITY AND
PRODUCED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS 8828 AND 8829 WERE NUMBERED
DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION
8824.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS FROM 11/21-2400UT AND THEN
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 JAN 196 Predicted 13 JAN-15 JAN 200/205/210 90 Day Mean 12 JAN 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN 015/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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