Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE ARE TEN NUMBERED
REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND ALL REMAIN STABLE. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8842 (S17W10) AND 8843 (N14E14).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8831
(S17W62) OR 8837 (S08W91).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE
PERIOD. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS AVERAGED AROUND 380 KM/S. THE BZ
COMPONENT CONTINUED NEGATIVE (SOUTHWARD) UNTIL 23/0217Z WHEN IT TOOK
A SHARP POSITIVE (NORTHWARD) DIRECTION.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 JAN 141 Predicted 24 JAN-26 JAN 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 23 JAN 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN 011/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN 010/015-005/007-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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