Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 January 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JAN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8848 (S09E27) PRODUCED
TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS EVENT: A C2/SF AT 1823Z. REGION 8841 (S30W47),
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AT 100 MILLIONTHS, WAS QUIET AND
STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8845 (S16E48) APPEARED TO BE
GROWING YESTERDAY AND PRODUCED A B-CLASS EVENT, BUT HAS DEVELOPED TO
A VERY STABLE AND QUIET H-TYPE CONFIGURATION. TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED
ON THE DISK TODAY: 8850 (S18E25) AND 8851 (N27E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CONTINUATION OF A
HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MOST OF
THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT
HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 JAN to 02 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 JAN 133 Predicted 31 JAN-02 FEB 135/137/137 90 Day Mean 30 JAN 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JAN 022/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JAN 012/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JAN-02 FEB 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 JAN to 02 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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