Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED, BUT REMAINED IN THE LOW CATEGORY. SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED. REGIONS 8848 (S08W29) AND 8854 (S34E59) EACH PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OBSERVED IN ANY OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. NEW REGIONS 8857 (S20E04) AND 8858 (N23E73) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON 05 FEBRUARY WITH THE RETURN OF PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING 06 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 FEB to 06 FEB
Class M10%20%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 FEB 154
  Predicted   04 FEB-06 FEB  155/170/180
  90 Day Mean        03 FEB 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB  005/007-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 FEB to 06 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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