SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8858 (N25E53) PRODUCED AN X1/3B MAJOR FLARE AT 05/1928Z. THIS FLARE HAD AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WITH 500 KM/S SHOCK SPEED AND MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS, INCLUDING A 350 SFU 10CM BURST. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED TO FOLLOW THESE EVENTS. THIS REGION WAS PRODUCING FREQUENT C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY PRIOR TO THE MAJOR FLARE, THE LARGEST WAS A C7/SF AT 05/0830Z. THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL AT APPROXIMATELY 200 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION IS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX WITH STRONG GRADIENTS AND IS STILL DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH CHANGE OBSERVED IN REGION 8851'S (N25W35) SIZE OR COMPLEXITY, BUT FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE NOTED. NEW REGION 8861 (N08W15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED M OR SMALL X-CLASS EVENT POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8858. ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM THIS REGION IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM REGION 8851.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORMING OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES LATE IN THE PERIOD. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED BEFORE 05/1449Z WHEN A SMALL BUT DISTINCT SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT L1, MARKING THE ONSET OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOPSYNCHRONONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AS WE FALL UNDER THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES. EXPECT THE FIELD TO RETURN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAY THREE.

  Observed       05 FEB 168
  Predicted   06 FEB-08 FEB  175/180/190
  90 Day Mean        05 FEB 174

OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 FEB  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 FEB-08 FEB  015/015-012/015-010/009