Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N27W10) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C7/1N LONG-DURATION EVENT
PEAKING AT 10/0208UT. THE FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II SWEEP
AND DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 240 SFU AT 2695 MHZ AND 3400
SFU AT 245 MHZ. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGIONS
8869 (S25E70) AND 8870 (N20E77) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8858.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS DUE TO FLARE/CME ACTIVITY WHICH OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 9.
III. Event Probabilities 11 FEB to 13 FEB
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 FEB 176 Predicted 11 FEB-13 FEB 176/176/174 90 Day Mean 10 FEB 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB 010/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB 010/015-015/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 FEB to 13 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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