Viewing archive of Monday, 6 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C4 FLARE AT
1049Z. REGION 8891 (S16W58) IS DECLINING SLOWLY BUT CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK. REGION 8898 (S13E20) CONTINUED TO
GROW AND SHOWED OCCASIONAL BRIGHTENINGS AND SUBFLARE ACTIVITY.
REGION 8900 (S15W12) IS ALSO GROWING, BUT WAS QUIETER THAN 8898.
REGION 8889 (N19W74), WHICH HAS BEEN VERY STABLE OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS, PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 1619Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIGHT
SURGE ON THE LIMB. SOHO/EIT IMAGES SHOWED THE ERUPTION OF A FILAMENT
IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE DISK ON THE 5TH AROUND 1700Z.
CORONAGRAPH DATA SHOW THAT THE CME MATERIAL IS NOT DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE EARTH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FROM REGION 8891, 8898, OR 8900.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY
CROSSING WAS OBSERVED AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 06/0200Z. SINCE THAT
TIME, SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 07 MAR to 09 MAR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 MAR 222 Predicted 07 MAR-09 MAR 225/220/215 90 Day Mean 06 MAR 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAR 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAR 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAR-09 MAR 007/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 MAR to 09 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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