Viewing archive of Monday, 13 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E06)
PRODUCED AN M3/1B AT 12/2338Z AND AN M1/1N AT 13/1048Z. BOTH FLARES
HAD ASSOCIATED MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS REGION WAS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES AND MAINTAINS A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS.
REGION 8910 (N09E56) WAS MODERATELY ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 13/1439Z. BOTH REGIONS 8898 (S14W70) AND 8904
(N24W70) APPEAR TO BE DECAYING AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8906 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS FLARES. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8910 AND FROM REGIONS 8898 AND 8904 AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED LEVELS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD,
BUT WAS QUIET SINCE 13/00Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 MAR to 16 MAR
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 MAR 188 Predicted 14 MAR-16 MAR 185/180/170 90 Day Mean 13 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAR 015/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 MAR to 16 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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