Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 April 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DROPPED TO A LOW LEVEL. SEVERAL MID TO HIGH C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8924 (N10W54) PRODUCED A C8/SF AT 01/0349Z AND A C8/1N AT 01/0744Z. REGION 8939 (N23E44) GENERATED A C6/SF AT 01/1151Z AND A C8/SF AT 01/1759Z. OUTSIDE OF SLIGHT GROWTH IN REGION 8924, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THESE OR OTHER REGIONS DURING THE PERIOD. A SMALL FILAMENT NEAR N45E20 FADED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS OCCURRED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 APR 223
  Predicted   02 APR-04 APR  223/223/220
  90 Day Mean        01 APR 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAR  018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 APR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 APR-04 APR  008/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 APR to 04 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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