Viewing archive of Monday, 24 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 24 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED, PRIMARILY FROM REGIONS 8971 (N18E28) AND 8972 (N34W34).
REGION 8971 IS A LARGE, COMPLEX GROUP, AND 8972 HAS A DEGREE OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL. REGION 8970 (S15E30), THE LARGEST ON
THE DISK AT OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS, HAS BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8970, 8971, AND 8972 ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A TRANSIENT
WAS SEEN TO PASS THE ACE SPACECRAFT AROUND 0400Z, BRINGING WITH IT
ENHANCED SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
OCCURRED SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THEN SUBSIDING TO MORE NORMAL (BUT
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED) LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON 25 APRIL, AND STRICTLY
UNSETTLED THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 25 APR to 27 APR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 APR 206 Predicted 25 APR-27 APR 210/210/215 90 Day Mean 24 APR 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR 004/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR 015/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR 015/018-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 APR to 27 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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