Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. A LONG DURATION B9
X-RAY ENHANCEMENT OCCURRED FROM 06/0945-1133Z. COINCIDENT IN TIME
WITH THIS EVENT WAS A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR
N26E39. A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FROM THE
NORTHEAST LIMB FOLLOWING THIS EVENT. DISK REGIONS WERE SMALL AND
EXHIBITED LITTLE EVOLUTION. A PROMINENCE NEAR SW34 SLOWLY ELEVATED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ERUPTING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ONLY ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC
PROTON FLUXES WERE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE BACKGROUND BUT FAR BELOW
EVENT LEVEL.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO
RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 MAY 127 Predicted 07 MAY-09 MAY 127/130/133 90 Day Mean 06 MAY 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY 010/010-010/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 MAY to 09 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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