Viewing archive of Monday, 8 May 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8990 (N13E49) BEGAN TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. A NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8991 (N16E70). OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS, THERE WERE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT FILAMENT ERUPTIONS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. THESE FILAMENTS WERE LARGE AND DENSE. A PARTIAL HALO WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH SPANNING FROM SE60-NW10 AT AROUND 08/0700Z. ANOTHER MASS EJECTION, THAT MAY ALSO BE A PARTIAL HALO EVENT, BECAME VISIBLE AROUND 08/1800Z IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8990 SHOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8990 OR 8991.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 09-10 MAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF 11 MAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 11 MAY FROM THE ERUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 09 MAY to 11 MAY
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 MAY 137
  Predicted   09 MAY-11 MAY  142/145/147
  90 Day Mean        08 MAY 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  005/008-005/008-018/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 MAY to 11 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%40%
Major-severe storm01%02%20%

All times in UTC

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