Viewing archive of Monday, 15 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVEN M-CLASS EVENTS WERE
REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/0902UT
FROM REGION 9002 (N18E70). THIS EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A 640 SFU
TENFLARE AND A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). REGION 8993
(S21W72) PRODUCED THREE M1 EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8998
(S14E41) ALSO PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT. THERE WERE TWO UNCORRELATED
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST REGION WAS 8996
(S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1280 MILLIONTHS AND 45 SPOTS. IT HAS SHOWN
AN INCREASE IN GROWTH AND SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS YET TO
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED:
9003 (S18W40) AND 9004 (N10E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUED MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS
DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 15 MAY, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAY 244 Predicted 16 MAY-18 MAY 245/250/250 90 Day Mean 15 MAY 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY 011/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY 010/012-015/015-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 70% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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