Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9042 (N23W54)
PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S C-CLASS EVENTS, INCLUDES THE LARGEST, A
C5/SF AT 0023Z. REGIONS 9040 (N18W73) AND 9046 (N20W21) ALSO
EXHIBITED SUBFLARE LEVEL BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE EVENT REGION 9042
HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE
GROUP. REGION 9046 (N20W21) ALSO CONTRIBUTED A FEW C-CLASS EVENTS
AND HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AREA. NEW REGION 9057 (N14E72)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE H-TYPE REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 ARE
CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS PREDOMINATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THERE WAS ONE ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM 0000-0300Z. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATED A SOLAR SECTOR BOUNDARY CROSSING FROM AN
'AWAY' (POSITIVE) CONFIGURATION TO A 'TOWARDS' (NEGATIVE)
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN 0100-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST UNSETTLED TOMORROW, BUT GRADUAL INCREASE TO
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IS ANTICIPATED LATE TOMORROW OR BY THE SECOND
DAY. THE INCREASE IS EXPECTED AS A RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JUN to 25 JUN
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 JUN 180 Predicted 23 JUN-25 JUN 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 22 JUN 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUN 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUN 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUN-25 JUN 012/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JUN to 25 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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