Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL, MOSTLY
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THIS PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS A C6
EVENT AT 29/0751Z. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHER C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ON OR BEHIND THE NW AND
SW LIMB. REGION 9062 (S16E23) IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK AND IS NOW A D TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 360 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE
PERIOD, BUT SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY HAS YET TO OCCUR. A NEW ACTIVE
REGION WITH FREQUENT SURGING IS ROTATING THE NE LIMB. REMAINING
REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM THE REGIONS ON THE WEST LIMB
IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. MOSTLY LOW LEVEL, ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH THE ACTIVE CONDITIONS
CONFINED TO LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES IN LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 JUN 163 Predicted 30 JUN-02 JUL 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 29 JUN 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN 014/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL 010/008-010/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 11% | 16% | 11% |
All times in UTC
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