Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A SINGLE
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
REGION 9149 (N14W10) WAS STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT REMAINED A
MEDIUM-SIZED E-TYPE GROUP WITH MINOR POLARITY MIXING OBSERVED NEAR
ITS LEADER SPOT. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL, STABLE,
AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. NEW REGION 9155 (S11E32) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 SEP 154 Predicted 04 SEP-06 SEP 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 03 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP 018/023 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP 012/012-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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