Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 20 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 9169 (N08E46)
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND
REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK. OTHER THAN LOW
C-CLASS EVENTS, THE REGION REMAINS QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM REGION 9169.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 SEP to 23 SEP
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 SEP 211 Predicted 21 SEP-23 SEP 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 20 SEP 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 SEP 015/027 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 SEP 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 SEP-23 SEP 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 SEP to 23 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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