Viewing archive of Friday, 6 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C2
x-ray event at 1011Z which was not observed optically. All of the
regions on the disk were quiet and stable. An 8 degree filament near
S40E06 disappeared sometime during the past 24 hours. The event is
spatially correlated with a CME that entered the LASCO/C2 field of
view at 1006Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active during the past 24
hours. Yesterday's disturbance persisted through 05/2400Z but
conditions became quiet after 06/0000Z with the northward turning of
the interplanetary magnetic field. Today's solar wind was
characterized by declining speeds, low densities, and weak,
northwardly directed magnetic fields, all of which lead to
predominantly quiet conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next two days, and is expected
to become unsettled by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 158 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 150/140/135 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 058/096 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/010-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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