Viewing archive of Friday, 3 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only several minor C-class
events were observed during the period from Regions 9210 (S27W30)
and 9212 (N09W08). Slight growth occurred in Regions 9212 and 9218
(N19E12). No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase during the first day of the period to active
conditions, due to the arrival of the full halo CME observed on 1
November. Minor to major storm levels are possible in the higher
latitudes. Active conditions are expected to decrease by late on
the second day and become predominantly quiet to unsettled by the
end of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 199 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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