Viewing archive of Monday, 6 November 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9210 (S25W82) produced a C2/1f at 06/0936 UTC. The remainder of the regions on the disk remained stable through the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. The anticipated shock from the CME on November 3rd passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 06/0915 UTC. Enhanced IMF and speed followed, resulting in active to major storm conditions prevailing from 1200 UTC through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active for the next 24 hours with brief periods of minor storm conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail for days two and three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 178
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  030/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  015/020-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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