Viewing archive of Monday, 13 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the last 24 hours.
The largest flare event was a C2 at 1211Z which was not observed
optically. Region 9227 (S11W14) continues to grow slowly and
produced a C2/Sf flare at 1630Z. Two new regions rotated into view
today: Region 9231 (S23E72) and Region 9232 (N26E76). Both appear to
be moderate-sized D-type sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event from any of regions 9227, 9231, or 9232.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The solar wind continues to show a high-speed solar wind
stream, but the average interplanetary Bz magnetic field component
has been weakly positive. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 08/2350z and reached a maximum of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600Z
ended today at 13/0745Z. The flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at
GOES has been at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days and is
expected to be quiet to unsettled by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 144 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 020/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/010-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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