Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few low-level C-class events,
including a C2/Sf at 15/2129Z from Region 9264 (S25W09) and a C2/Sf
at 16/0016Z from newly assigned Region 9275 (N20W32). Region 9264
continues to be the largest group on the disk, but could only muster
one C-class event during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit attained
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the next three days.
Recent CME activity observed by LASCO on the 14th is not expected to
be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 191 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 190/195/195 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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