Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9289
(S08E64) produced an M4/1f at 27/1544 UTC. This region also
produced several mid-level C-class flares throughout the day, as did
Region 9283 (S11E11), which is now exhibiting a somewhat more
complex magnetic configuration that may indicate emergence of two
bipolar subgroups in close proximity within the active region.
Meanwhile, Region 9280 (N10W31) has diminished in activity, areal
coverage and spot count, and Region 9289 has replaced it as the
largest group on the disk (330 millionths, in a Dao-beta
configuration). Other activity observed this period included a weak
Type II radio sweep at 27/0347 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery suggests the
source to be a CME event from behind the west limb, which does not
appear earth-directed. New Region 9290 (N30E31) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A somewhat increased chance for isolated M-class
activity is expected for regions 9283 and 9289.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
an earth-directed CME event.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 188
Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 190/185/180
90 Day Mean 27 Dec 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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