Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 03/2355 UTC. Images from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that the
source of this flare was from just beyond the northeast limb near
NE25. Small C-class flares also occurred, including a C3/Sf at
04/2008 UTC in Region 9289 (S07W38) and a C2/Sf at 04/1914 UTC in
newly numbered Region 9301 (N07E73). New Regions 9297 (N24W16), 9298
(S22W04), 9299 (N09E39), and 9300 (S14E55) were also numbered. All
of the new active regions appear relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class subflares are expected to continue and a chance
of an isolated M-class flare exists. The most likely source of the
M-class activity remains the active region just beyond the northeast
limb. This area will probably begin rotating into view within the
next 24 hours.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 175 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 015/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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