Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C3 x-ray event at 1520 UTC,
when both Regions 9302 (N19E52) and 9291 (S13W76) had Sf optical
flares, was the premier flare event of the period. Little else of
significance occurred, although another new region, 9303 (S04W47)
emerged. Currently there are twelve assigned regions visible, with
the possibility of more to come. There are reports of additional
groups coming fully into view at east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9302 and 9289 (S05W67) have potential for
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. There was an
enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous
orbit that began late on 05 January. These particles may be an
effect of a large halo CME directed away from earth seen by LASCO at
1706 UTC yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled through 09 January.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 179 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 180/175/180 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 010/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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