Viewing archive of Monday, 15 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar Activity was low. Region 9306 (N12W38) produced a short duration C9/Sf X-ray event at 15/1603Z, and a C4/Sf at 15/1847Z. Several other minor C-class events were also observed, some optically uncorrelated. Since yesterday, a slight decrease was noted in the number of spots in Region 9306 with no significant change in white light area or magnetic complexity. However, minor growth was observed in Region 9308 during the period. New Regions 9310 (N26E37), and 9311 (N04E53) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. Region 9306 continues to be capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 169
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/008-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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