Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC
associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay
prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the
rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or
declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare sometime during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare
from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10
MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31
January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the
first half of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 168 Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 28 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 007/004-010/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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