Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Just one C-class event
occurred, a C1/Sf from Region 9348 (N15W33), at 1633 UTC. Most
regions were either stable or decaying. The 10.7 cm dropped again,
for the fourth straight day.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The solar
wind speed increased from 450 to 600 km/s near 0300 UTC, and is
still hovering near 550 km/s. As a consequence, active to minor
storm levels have been noted since. Although this change in solar
wind plasma did not have the common characteristics of a shock, it
may be related to the CME that left the Sun on 11 February.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled. However, substorms may bring
periods of active to minor storm conditions during local nighttimes.
This disturbance should weaken by the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 141 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 015/012-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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