Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Isolated B- and C-class
X-ray flares occurred. Minor growth was observed in Regions 9366
(S25E13), 9368 (N26E20), and 9369 (N17W62); but all were small and
simply-structured. The remaining regions were small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an isolated, low-level M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly unsettled levels with an
isolated active period during 04/1500 - 1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. Brief active conditions will be possible during the first
two days due to weak coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 141 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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