Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 9373 (S07W06)
produced several B-class subflares with the largest a B8/SF at
15/1452 UTC. This Region remains the largest and seemingly most
complex on the visible disk. Region 9384 (N10W11) also produced
subflares since yesterday. This sunspot group is growing and
presently has a small D-type sunspot configuration. Region 9383
(S10W58) has also grown but has not yet produced significant flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class activity is possible in Regions 9373, 9383, and 9384. Region
9373 appears to be the most capable of low-level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with occasional unsettled
periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 136 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-008/007-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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