Viewing archive of Friday, 30 March 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate to high. Region 9393 (N17 W30) has produced three M-class flares since 30/0000 UTC. The region remains large, complex, and threatening to produce more Class X events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain high. Region 9393 remains the center of a complex likely to produce M-Class events with a very good chance of one or more Class X events over the next three days as the region moves away from central meridian but remains in a prime location to produce strong to severe effects at Earth. Over a dozen sunspot groups are visible and may produce Class M events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Activity in the geomagnetic field has been unsettled the past 24 hours. Some discontinuity was observed at the ACE spacecraft and at Earth between 30/1800 UTC and 30/1900 UTC. The event appeared to be small and is likely the result of solar activity prior to 29 March. The small proton event that began at 29/1000 UTC reached a maximum flux of 35 pfu in the >30 MeV GOES detector and remains above 10 pfu today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Effects from CME's from the events on 29 March are expected to begin early on 31 March. Model runs predict an earlier arrival at Earth late on 30 March. ACE energetic protons are rising slowly indicating the disturbance is still some distance away at 30/2100 UT. Any geomagnetic storm that results is expected to range from minor to major. The small >30 MeV proton event in progress is expected to continue its slow decline with a chance of an enhancement with the passage of the interplanetary shock. Major activity from Region 9393 may well produce additional proton events and geomagnetic activity at Earth.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton99%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 257
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  255/250/245
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  017/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  045/050-045/050-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm40%40%17%
Major-severe storm52%50%50%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm40%40%30%
Major-severe storm50%50%35%

All times in UTC

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