Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
9415 (S21E05) produced no flares during the period, but remained
large and complex with a persistent magnetic delta structure within
its lead sunspot. The remaining regions were simply structured and
stable, including newly numbered Regions 9423 (N21E03) and 9424
(S16E34).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Quiet to unsettled levels occurred through 08/1030 UTC. A
CME-related shock front reached the ACE spacecraft at 08/1034 UTC
followed by a sudden impulse (SI) at 08/1101 UTC (58 nT, as measured
by the Boulder magnetometer). Field activity increased to active to
major storm levels following the SI. The CME source was the X5 flare
of 06 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained enhanced, but slowly decreased through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Active to major geomagnetic
storm conditions are expected during the first day as CME effects
continue. Unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of
the period. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region
9415 during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 169 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 017/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 030/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 025/030-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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