Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9433 (N16W15)
produced two M-class flares during the period. The largest was an
M2/2n at 25/1348 UTC. This event had an associated Type II radio
sweep and a 200 sfu 10 cm radio burst. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
was also observed during this event, however images from the
LASCO/EIT space craft show it to be non earth-directed. Region 9433
continued to grow in area and spot count during the period and
retains an F-type spot group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Regions 9438 (S13E22) and 9439 (S22W28) were numbered
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. The ongoing development of Region 9433 suggests a
major flare is possible sometime during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled conditions barring an
earth-directed CME. There is an increasing chance for a proton event
as Region 9433 continues to evolve and rotate into the western solar
hemisphere.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 194 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 200/210/215 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 010/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 010/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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