Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9445 (N24W54), still the
most active spot group visible, produced a C9/1f flare at 0055 UTC,
the day's largest event. The region retains a modest degree of
magnetic complexity. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9445 retains the potential to produce a small
M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC, reached a maximum of 30 pfu
at 08/0755 UTC. Those fluxes are now slowly declining to more normal
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 129 Predicted 09 May-11 May 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 08 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 010/008-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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