Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Two noteworthy C-class events occurred during the day. The first was
a C5 which started at 0105 UTC, reached maximum at 0203 UTC, and
ended at 0443 UTC. There were no observations of corresponding disk
activity, but there was a CME just behind the Northwest limb of the
Sun that could be reasonably associated with the event. The other
was a C6 with start-max-end times of 1448-1519-1547 UTC: newly
assigned Region 9454 (N15E74) was seen to brighten in H-alpha during
the event, and a CME became visible on the East limb in C2
observations at 1530 UTC. A type II sweep was also associated with
this event. New Region 9454 is now the largest sunspot group on the
disk with an area of 300 millionths in an Eao-Beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 9454.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
initially active geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels
between 0000-0900 UTC. Conditions declined thereafter and were quiet
to unsettled during the last nine hours of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 130
Predicted 11 May-13 May 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 10 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 019/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 028/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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